Where: Nationals Park
When: 7:05 EST (approximately)
The Starters: Johnson (6-7, 4.04) vs. Gonzalez (13-5, 3.27)
The Line: Nats -155, Marlins +135, O/U 7 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters - Gio Gonzalez will take the mound for game two of this NL east double header in hopes of bouncing back from a rough outing in Milwaukee. Since winning the NL’s pitcher of the month award back in May (when he went 5-0 with a 2.25 era) Gio has taken a bit of a step back, posting a 4.37 era in his last 10 starts. However, he still managed to go 6-3 over that stretch and will be facing a worse Marlin lineup tonight than the one he held to just 2 runs over 6 innings (9 Ks, 0 BBs) less than a month ago (July 14th). The Marlins will counter with their big right hander Josh Johnson. JJ has been a bit of an enigma so far in 2012, producing mediocre results despite possessing top tier stuff. It appeared he may be back after posting a 1.87 era in June, but then he proceeded to give up 14 earned runs in 16.2 innings (7.56 era) over his first 3 starts of July. The 2nd of those 3 starts was a 5.1 inning, 5 earned runs performance that resulted in a loss to the Nats. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The National’s lineup had a pretty terrible series against the Phillies, scoring just 5 runs in the 3 game set. However, it’s worth noting that they were without 3 of their four best hitters (Zimmerman, LaRoche, and Desmond) for at least one game each (Desmond missed all 3). Despite their struggles against Philly, the Nats continue to hold their place as a slightly above average National League offense, ranking between 6th and 8th in all the major statistics. The Marlins are also coming off a series in which they struggled, scoring just 8 runs over 4 games in Atlanta. However, their struggles have been season long and probably won’t get much better with Stanton injured and Ramirez traded to the Dodgers. They are currently dead last in runs scored and ranked no higher than 11th in any stat except for steals, which they lead the league in. Advantage Nationals
Bullpens – The Nationals bullpen had a pretty good series against Philadelphia and lowered their era to 3.47, which ranks 7th best in the National League. They have four guys with eras under 3 (Burnett, Stammen, Gonzalez, and Clippard) and former closer Drew Storen seems to be improving with every outing. With all of the weak links being removed from the 25-man roster (either by injury or otherwise) the worst era of any active reliever is a respectable 3.42 (Tom Gorzelanny). The Marlin’s bullpen has improved quite a bit since they demoted Heath Bell from the closer role (finally) and replaced him with Steve Cishek. They currently have a 4.08 era as a group that ranks them just outside the top half of the NL in 9th place. They’re still not a great group but having Cishek closing games at least makes them respectable. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary - The Nats get the good Gio tonight as he dominates the slumping Marlins while Harper paces the offense with a big night.
Prediction: Nationals 5, Marlins 2
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Gonzalez (7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 10 K, 1 BB), Harper (2-3, HR, 3 RBI), Johnson (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 3 BB), Lee (2-4, 2B, RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 61 – 43