The 2012 Home Run Derby will take place tonight in Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium and should be a real crowd pleaser. For the 2nd time the derby participants were selected by a team captain from each league. This year’s captains are Matt Kemp for the NL and defending champion Robinson Cano for the AL. Cano selected Prince Fielder, Mike Trumbo and Jose Bautista to join him on the AL squad while Matt Kemp selected Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Gonzalez to represent the NL. However Giancarlo Stanton is unable to compete due to injury and has been replaced by Andrew McCutchen. The AL team looks like the better foursome to me but any of these 8 guys are capable of taking this thing. The derby will no doubt provide some great entertainment for every baseball fan tonight, but for those of you who want to make it a little more interesting here’s each slugger’s odds at victory…
Jose Bautista +350
Prince Fielder +400
Robinson Cano +400
Mark Trumbo +550
Matt Kemp +600
Carlos Gonzalez +750
Andrew McCutchen +800
Carlos Beltran +800
So as you can see vegas thinks it’s anybody’s game, with no one better than a 3.5 to 1 favorite or less than a 8 to 1 dog in an 8 man competition.
Prediction: Mark Trumbo over Robinson Cano in Final
There really aren’t a lot of numbers or angles to use when trying to predict an event like this considering it’s totally different from the actual game but I’m taking derby rookie Mark Trumbo of the Angels to win it all tonight for 3 reasons:
1. I’m feeling it – there’s no logic here, just when I look at the 8 names competing tonight Trumbo keeps standing out to me. However that could just be because it’s a funny name.
2. Smooth swing – Trumbo has a controlled, smooth swing that should give him an advantage over some of the guys that really swing violently like a Prince Fielder. Trumbo shouldn’t run out of gas as fast as most of the other participants.
3. Swing arch – Trumbo has a bit of an uppercut to his swing that when combined with his raw power should give him enough of a margin for error that he can mishit a ball slightly and still clear the fence.
As long as Trumbo doesn’t let some first timer jitters ruin his opening round I really like his odds tonight, but regardless of who wins, baseball fans everywhere are in for a treat tonight. Enjoy!