Where: Nationals Park
When: 6:35 EST
The Starters: Lincecum (3-8, 5.60) vs. Zimmermann (4-6, 2.77)
The Line: Nats -135, Giants +115, O/U 7.5 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters - Jordan Zimmermann will pitch tonight for the Nationals in game one of this battle of division leaders. Despite his poor record, Zimmermann has been one of baseball’s most consistent pitchers, delivering quality starts nearly every time he takes the mound. Zim looked very good in his last start, allowing just 1 run in 7 innings in the thin air of Coors Field. I fully expect another quality start out of him tonight at home. 2 time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum will take the mound for the red hot Giants coming off a much needed solid start in his last outing. Lincecum has really ineffective this year, and by his high standards he’s been incredibly bad. There are two real areas of concern for Lincecum; one being that his control has been bad, leaving fastballs up in the zone and walking nearly 5 batters per 9 innings. The other being that his velocity has dropped, making his best pitch (changeup) less effective because he no longer has the 10-12 mph difference from his fastball, it’s more like 6-8 now. However, with mechanics like the Freak’s it’s easy to lose them and he has overcame stretches like this before, in the end he’s still Tim Lincecum. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The Nationals lineup is in the midst of it’s most impressive stretch of the season by far. They were able to carry over their Coors Field success (35 runs in 4 games) into Atlanta, scoring 18 runs in a 3 game set against the Braves. The overall numbers on the season are still pretty underwhelming (no NL top 5s in any major statistic) but with the addition of Tyler Moore and resurgence of Zimmerman and Morse this offense looks to be on the rise. The Giants offense is very similar to the Nats in terms of production at this point in the season, in fact their total runs scored are almost exactly the same (Giants 317, Nats 316). The difference is in the way that each team has gotten their runs with the Nats using power and the Giants using speed/small ball. San Francisco does a good job of getting on base and once they’re on they run well. Advantage Nationals (slightly)
Bullpens – The Washington bullpen has been among the best groups in the NL for the majority of the season, and currently rank 3rd with a 3.07 era. They are just a really well assembled group, with guys who can get lefties out, guys who can get righties out, and guys keep runners from advancing with strikeouts. On top of that Tyler Clippard has been the best reliever in baseball since getting moved to the closer role. The Giants bullpen has done a really solid job this season despite the loss of All-Star closer Brian Wilson as they rank 5th in the NL with a 3.44 era. Replacement closer Stantiago Casilla has done a admirable job filling in, converting 21 of his 24 save chances with an era under 3. Their best pitcher Sergio Romo has been nearly unhittable this year with a microscopic 0.79 era. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary - Both starters pitch well but home field makes the difference as the Nats take game 1 on a clutch hit late in the game.
Prediction: Nationals 4, Giants 3
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Zimmermann (6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 1 BB), Desmond (2-4, HR, 2 RBI), Lincecum (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 3 BB), Cabrera (3-4, 2B, RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 45 – 32