Where: Turner Field
When: 1:35 EST
The Starters: Gonzalez (10-3, 2.78) vs. Hudson (6-3, 3.58)
The Line: Braves -110, Nats -110, O/U 8 Runs, Braves -1.5
Starters – Gio Gonzalez will be the starter for the Nats tonight, searching for his team high 11th win of the season. Gio has been one of the toughest lefties in baseball all year, with a .191 Opp BA and 108 strikeouts in just 90.2 innings (10.7 K/9). He’s cooled off a little since his red hot start, allowing at least 2 earned runs in each of his past 6 starts, but he hasn’t been bad and has racked up 4 wins over that stretch. In 2 starts against Atlanta this season Gio went 1-1 with a 3.86 era and 15 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. 36 year old right hander Tim Hudson will take the mound for the Braves in hopes of staying hot and securing a series victory. After missing a few starts to begin the season due to injury, Hudson has been his normal reliable self, inducing tons of ground balls. Hudson has been especially good in his last 4 starts, going 3-1 with a 1.92 era in 28 innings. However, his worst start of the year came against these Nats in late May, when he surrendered 7 earned runs in a loss. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The Nationals come into this series on a 3 game streak of scoring double digit runs after never scoring more than 9 runs in any of their first 71 games…gotta love Coors Field. But now it’s back to reality at sea level and against pitchers that are legit major leaguers. Even with the boost from playing 4 games at Coors, the Nats are still in the National League’s bottom 5 in average, on base percentage and runs. The good news is Morse and Zimmerman are starting to hit and Tyler Moore looks like a beast. The Braves offense has dropped off a bit since being one of the league’s best the last time these two teams met in late May. They’ve gone from being in the NL’s top 5 in nearly every statistic to being outside the top 5 in everything except runs (4th). With that said, they’re still in the 6th to 8th range in most areas so it’s not like they’re terrible, probably still slightly above average. Advantage Braves
Bullpens – Despite taking the loss last night in Colorado, the Nationals bullpen is one of the NL’s best, with a 3.07 era that’s good for 3rd best in the senior circuit. Since settling everyone into more defined roles by trimming the fat (released Lidge, reduced Rodriguez’s innings) the Nat’s pen has been very reliable and closer Tyler Clippard has been downright unhittable, allowing just 1 hit in his last 14 innings. The Braves bullpen has been a bit of disappointment so far in 2012. They were the best group in baseball last year (in terms of era) and returned all of their big 3 (Venters, O’Flaherty, Kimbrel), but have only managed a pedestrian 3.77 era (8th in NL). Kimbrel has remained dominant and may be baseball’s best closer (1.55 era 22 of 23 saves) but Venters and O’Flaherty both currently have eras that are more than double (more than triple for O’Flaherty) their 2011 eras. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary – Both pitchers turn in quality starts but the Braves come up with a clutch hit late to take the game and the series.
Prediction: Braves 4, Nationals 3
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Gonzalez (6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 6 K, 2 BB), LaRoche (2-4, HR, 2 RBI), Hudson (7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 1 BB), Uggla (2-3, HR, 2 RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 45 – 31