Where: Turner Field
When: 4:05 EST
The Starters: Strasburg (9-2, 2.60) vs. Minor (3-6, 6.14)
The Line: Nats -150, Braves +130, O/U 8 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters – Stephen Strasburg will take the mound this afternoon for the Nats in hopes of starting another win streak after taking the loss in his last outing. The Strasbeast has been dominant all year long but it’s fair to say he’s slumping a little bit by his standards. In his last 10 starts his era is 3.41, but he has struck out an insane 84 batters in 58 innings, so it’s not as if he’s been below average by anyone’s standards but his own. In 2 starts against Atlanta this season he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 era and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. Southpaw Mike Minor will try to tame the Strasbeast for the 2nd time this season, with the first resulting in a loss on May 26th. Minor has been terrible so far in 2012 after looking pretty promising in his rookie season last year (5-3, 4.14) and he seems to be getting even worse, with a 7.45 era in his last 10 starts. Looking at his stats from last season compared to 2012, the only large discrepency (other than ER obviously) is he’s given up 18 homers this year after just 7 in 2011 (roughly the same number of innings pitched). That would lead me to believe he’s leaving pitches up in the zone and hitters are making him pay for it. He needs to keep the ball down against this hot Nat’s lineup or he won’t last long. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The Nationals come into this series on a 3 game streak of scoring double digit runs after never scoring more than 9 runs in any of their first 71 games…gotta love Coors Field. But now it’s back to reality at sea level and against pitchers that are legit major leaguers. Even with the boost from playing 4 games at Coors, the Nats are still in the National League’s bottom 5 in average, on base percentage and runs. The good news is Morse and Zimmerman are starting to hit and Tyler Moore looks like a beast. The Braves offense has dropped off a bit since being one of the league’s best the last time these two teams met in late May. They’ve gone from being in the NL’s top 5 in nearly every statistic to being outside the top 5 in everything except runs (4th). With that said, they’re still in the 6th to 8th range in most areas so it’s not like they’re terrible, probably still slightly above average. Advantage Braves
Bullpens – Despite taking the loss last night in Colorado, the Nationals bullpen is one of the NL’s best, with a 3.07 era that’s good for 3rd best in the senior circuit. Since settling everyone into more defined roles by trimming the fat (released Lidge, reduced Rodriguez’s innings) the Nat’s pen has been very reliable and closer Tyler Clippard has been downright unhittable, allowing just 1 hit in his last 14 innings. The Braves bullpen has been a bit of disappointment so far in 2012. They were the best group in baseball last year (in terms of era) and returned all of their big 3 (Venters, O’Flaherty, Kimbrel), but have only managed a pedestrian 3.77 era (8th in NL). Kimbrel has remained dominant and may be baseball’s best closer (1.55 era 22 of 23 saves) but Venters and O’Flaherty both currently have eras that are more than double (more than triple for O’Flaherty) their 2011 eras. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary – Strasburg starts another win streak with a good outting backed up by the National’s bats staying hot.
Prediction: Nationals 6, Braves 3
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Strasburg (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 7 K, 1 BB), Zimmerman (3-4, HR, 3 RBI), Minor (5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 3 BB), Uggla (2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 45 – 30