Where: Coors Field
When: 3:10 EST
The Starters: Jackson (4-4, 2.91) vs. Outman (0-3, 8.64)
The Line: Nats -155, Rocks +135, O/U 11 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters – Edwin Jackson will be the National’s starter tonight in the finale of this 4 game series. When the Nat’s signed the 28 year old right hander this off season I liked the move because it added an innings eater to a staff that had some injury history and of course Strasburg’s innings limit. But since coming to the nation’s capital Jackson has been much more than just an innings eater and has far exceeded my expectations. This season, his 10th in the majors, Jackson has been drastically better than his career averages in nearly every category, most notably dropping his WHIP to 1.04 from a 1.44 career mark. His 14 starts are not quite a big enough sample size to say he’ll be this good from now on, but in the prime of his career at 28 it sure seems like he’s figured something out. 27 year old lefty Josh Outman will take the mound for the Rockies this afternoon, making his 6th start of 2012. In about one full season’s worth of innings in the big leagues (176.1) Outman’s numbers overall aren’t bad, with a 4.44 era and 1.40 WHIP. However, he compiled most of those numbers pitching in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game (Oakland Coliseum) and he has been terrible since moving to Colorado. After being thrust into a starting role due to injuries and ineffectiveness of other starters, Outman has been terrible, giving up 19 earned runs in just 20.1 IP (8.41 era). It’s hard to imagine him having a very good outing tonight against a Nationals team that has scored 23 runs in it’s last two games. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The Nationals lineup is coming off yet another series where they struggled to score, crossing the plate just 5 times in 3 games at Camden Yards. They are now outside the NL top 10 in every major offensive statistic except home runs (8th) and slugging percentage (10th). Youngsters Harper, Lombardozzi and Desmond have all cooled off a bit while veterans Zimmerman and Morse struggle (through injuries) just to stay above the Mendoza line, not a good combination. The Rockies on the other hand have quietly been one of the NL’s best offensive teams despite injury issues for their stars Tulowitzki and Gonzalez. Colorado ranks in the NL top 5 in every major batting category and lead the league in both home runs (89) and slugging percentage (.450). Playing at Coors Field obviously doesn’t hurt their numbers but this team can hit anywhere. Advantage Rockies
Bullpens - The Washington bullpen did cough up an 8th inning lead last night to the Orioles, but they still have the third best era in the NL at 2.94. They have a really solid group of guys from top to bottom and they all seem to be settled into a role now, which makes life easier for them. They also should be getting a boost in a few weeks with the return of Drew Storen, who began throwing off a mound last week. The Rockies bullpen is currently right near the middle of the pack in the NL with a 3.83 era (9th). Their group consists of a bunch of unknown guys with the exception of former Oriole Jeremy Guthrie, who was recently demoted to the pen after a string of bad starts. Overall they have done a decent job though, this team’s problem is their starters not their relievers. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary - The National’s bats continue to produce and Jackson turns in another quality start as the Nats take the series with 3 straight curly W’s.
Prediction: Nationals 6, Rockies 4
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Jackson (7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 2 BB), Espinosa (2-3, HR, 2 RBI, SB), Outman (4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 2 BB), Gonzalez (2-4, HR, 2 RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 44 – 29