Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
When: 7:15 EST
The Starters: Jackson (3-4, 3.02) vs. Chen (7-2, 3.36)
The Line: O’s -120, Nats 100, O/U 8.5 Runs, O’s -1.5
Starters – Edwin Jackson takes the mound tonight for the Nationals in hopes of keeping his team’s hopes of a tie for the MASN Cup alive going into Sunday’s finale. Jackson has always been a solid pitcher and a real workhorse, but this year he’s taken his game to another level. His commmand has been great and it’s led to big improvements in some key statistics. Jacksons 1.05 WHIP, .213 Opp BA, and 3.02 era are way below his career averages of 1.45 WHIP, .271 Opp BA and 4.36 era respectively. On top of that EJ has been red hot lately and has already dominated the Orioles once this year (8 IP, 1 ER on 5/18). The Orioles will counter with an overachieving pitcher of their own in 26 year old lefty Wei-Yin Chen. Chen is a battler, routinely getting out of jams and making big pitches when he needs to. This is illustrated by his very solid (especailly in the AL East) 3.36 era despite a pretty average 1.29 WHIP. Chen has great poise for a rookie and an above average arsenal of pitches that he mixes in effectively. When he gets into trouble it’s due to command issues, but he hasn’t had many of those yet. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – At this point the Nationals lineup is still a work in progress. Despite winning the series against the Rays, the Nats produced a total of just 16 hits in the series (5.33/game) with two of the games coming against rookie starters (one making his major league debut). Going into the series at Camden Yards, the Nats are in the bottom 10 of the league in AVG (.240), OBP (.306), OPS (.698), SB (42), and most importantly runs (26th in MLB). On the bright side, they have done a good job of playing small ball lately and Davey Johnson has started to get more aggressive on the base paths with positive results. Last time these two teams met, the O’s had some of the best numbers in the league offensively, but they’ve cooled off since then, dropping out of the top 20 in AVG (.246) and OBP (.309). On top of that, they lead the majors in strikeouts and are by far the league’s slowest team on the bases with just 22 steals in 39 attempts. However, the return of Brian Roberts will help with that and they can still hit the long ball with 90 homers on the year (3rd most in MLB). Advantage Orioles
Bullpens - The Washington bullpen came into the year expected to be one of the strongest groups in baseball and after a shaky period trying to find a closer they have become just that. The Nat’s 2.95 bullpen era is good for 8th best in the league and they’re the 3rd most difficult unit to hit with a .210 opponents average. Right hander Tyler Clippard has been absolutely incredible since taking over the job of interim closer. In 21.1 innings since May 1st, Clippard has allowed just 1 ER on 4 hits while striking out 26 and converted all of his 11 save chances. Unlike the Nats, not much was expected of the Oriole’s bullpen going into 2012, but they have proven to be the bunch in all of baseball. They have a league best (by far) 2.38 era and also rank top 5 in W (14), IP, Opp BA (.219) and WHIP (1.09). Those outstanding numbers are thanks in large part to Jim Johnson, who has become one of the best closers in baseball with 20 saves in 21 chances. Advantage Orioles
Game Summary – The Nationals keep their hopes of splitting the MASN cup alive with a curly W behind another solid start from Edwin Jackson.
Prediction: Nationals 5, Orioles 3
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Jackson (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 7 K, 2 BB), Morse (2-3, HR, 2 RBI), Chen (6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 K, 3 BB), Wieters (2-4, HR, 2 RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 41 – 27