Where: National’s Park
When: 7:05 EST
The Starters: Moore (4-5, 4.16) vs. Gonzalez (8-3, 2.52)
The Line: Nats -140, Rays +120, O/U 7.5 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters – Gio Gonzalez will take the ball for Davey Johnson and the Nats in the rubber match of this series in hopes of tying Strasburg for the team lead with 9 wins. Gonzalez has been a little more hittable lately, with a 4.23 era in 3 June starts, but he did face some pretty potent offenses in those outings (Braves, Red Sox, Yankees) and he still has an incredibly low opponents batting average of .173 (2nd lowest in MLB). Gio hasn’t given up more than 7 hits or 3 earned runs in any of his last 12 starts, so he’s a solid bet to give the Nats a quality start against a lineup that doesn’t hit lefties well (.224 team AVG vs. left). 23 year old rookie southpaw Matt Moore will pitch tonight in hopes of capturing a series victory for the Rays. Moore is a guy I’ve been a fan of since he started piling up ridiculous strikeout numbers as a 19 year old minor leaguer in 2009. He has a big time power arm, above average secondary pitches, and surprisingly good command for a hard throwing youngster. Although his numbers aren’t spectacular so far, they are pretty impressive for a rookie in the AL East and with the exception of one disaster start (8 ER vs. A’s) he’s given the Rays a chance to win every time he’s pitched. Moore’s command will continue to get better and he should develop into one of baseball’s toughest lefties. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The Nationals have been pretty poor offensively all year and the reasons why are obvious; they were bad in 2011 and made no major free agent hitter additions, their 2 most productive hitters in 2011 (Morse, Zimmerman) are struggling and have missed time due to injury, and finally their 3rd and 4th most productive hitters from last year (Werth, Ramos) sustained season ending (most likely) injuries. The Nats are in the bottom half of the league in every notable offensive statistic except home runs (64, T-13th). Like the Nats, Tampa’s lineup great either, ranking now higher than 9th in any category other than walks (they lead MLB in walks). They have been hurt by the loss of Even Longoria to injury and the addition of Carlos Pena, who’s just terrible. Advantage Rays
Bullpens – The bullpens are an area of strength for both of these teams. Washington’s group has a combined era of 3.11 which is good for 9th best in the league. The Nats have had some trouble figuring out the roles of some of the back end guys in Storen’s absence but overall most of them have done a solid job. They should be even more solid now with Mattheus back from injury and Lidge (9.64 era) designated for assignment. The Rays pen has been a little bit of a pleasant surprise for them, with a 3.32 era that ranks 11th in baseball. The real shocker has been closer Fernando Rodney who has somehow managed to go from considered done in the majors to one of the best closers in the game going 19 for 20 in save chances with a 1.14 era. His command has been the difference as he’s walked just 5 in 31.2 IP after walking 28 in 32 IP last year, a pretty amazing improvement for a 35 year old. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary - Both starters dominate and rack up strikeouts but in the end home field makes the difference as the Nationals score late to take the series victory.
Prediction: Nationals 3, Rays 2
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Gonzalez (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 8 K, 1 BB), Desmond (2-4, HR, SB), Moore (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 9 K, 2 BB), Upton (2-4, 2B, RBI, SB)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 39 – 27