Where: Rogers Centre
When: 7:07 EST
The Starters: Jackson (2-3, 3.11) vs. Morrow (7-3, 2.90)
The Line: Jays -160, Nats +140, O/U 8 Runs, Jays -1.5
Starters – Edwin Jackson has been great so far in a Nats uniform and still seems to be getting a little bit better each start. Jackson has always been known more for being a work horse than for being a great pitcher, but this year he has changed that perception a bit. His command has been very good with a K/BB ratio over 3 (59/19) and opponents are batting just .212 off of him (career Opp BA is .272). Jackson still leaves the occasional fastball over the plate but far less than in previous years and he’s managed to avoid the disaster outing. The Blue Jays will counter with Brandon Morrow who leads the majors with 3 shutouts already this season. Morrow has always had great potential but has been derailed by command issues until this season. In 2012 he has issued less walks while maintaining a low opponents batting average (.191), resulting in an outstanding 0.99 WHIP (5th in MLB). Morrow is coming off a 2-hit shutout and I expect him to be sharp again tonight at home. Advantage Blue Jays
Lineups – The Nat’s lineup continues to score just enough runs to make their brilliant pitching hold up. However, they rank T-25th in the majors in runs scored and outside the top 20 in most other offensive statistics. I don’t think they’re quite as bad as the numbers indicate with Harper becoming a real force and Mike Morse back, but they’re no juggernaut either. The Blue Jays lineup is one of the best in baseball again this year, with a great blend of speed and power. They’ve scored the 5th most runs in baseball to this point and have hit the 2nd most home runs (82). The Jays are definitely a team carried by their offense. Advantage Blue Jays
Bullpens – The Washington bullpen is one of the most talented in all of baseball and has really locked opposing teams down since naming Tyler Clippard the interim closer. Since taking over for Henry Rodriguez, Clip has given up just 1 hit (0 runs) in 8.1 IP while going 8 for 8 in save opportunities without really even a sweat in any of them. Clippard at the back end coupled with guys like Craig Stammen and Sean Burnett, the Nat’s bullpen is one of the most reliable groups in baseball. The Toronto bullpen has been a different story, as their most reliable contributor has been 41 year old Darren Oliver. Other than Oliver, no other Blue Jay pitcher (with more than 2 IP) has an era under 3 and they don’t have a proven closer. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary – The Jays use the long ball to get to Jackson early as Morrow cruises to his 8th victory of the season.
Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Nationals 2
Key Players (Stat Prediciton): Jackson (6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 2 BB), Harper (2-4, 2B, RBI), Morrow (8 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 8 K, 1 BB), Rasmus (2-3, HR, 3 RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 35 – 23
Jesse’s Picks ATS: 28 – 29