Where: National’s Park
When: 7:05 EST
The Starters: Hefner (1-2, 5.60) vs. Jackson (1-3, 3.17)
The Line: Nats -155, Mets +135, O/U 7.5 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters – Hard throwing right hander Edwin Jackson will take the ball for the Nationals tonight riding a streak of 3 straight quality starts. Jackson was inconsistent early in the year, alternating between good starts and bad ones, but has really settled in recently dropping his era to an impressive (especially for a number 4 starter) 3.17. Despite pitching very well he has just 1 win, but I like his chances to get number 2 tonight. Jeremy Hefner will make his 3rd career big league start tonight for the Mets after recording his first major league win against the Phillies in his last outing. Obviously Hefner doesn’t have much of a track record in the big leagues yet (4 career MLB games) but he’s looked pretty hittable in his limited time and has never been overly impressive in the minors. I think Hefner will get hit early and often tonight. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The Nationals lineup continues to struggle to score runs consistently, currently ranking 13th in the National League in runs scored with 196 (3.77/game). They ranked no higher than 6th in the NL in any major offensive statistic (HR, 50) and they’re close to the bottom in most. Mike Morse being back is a plus and they have got some nice production out of rookies Steve Lombardozzi and Bryce Harper, but at this point even calling them mediocre is a bit of as stretch. The Met’s offensive success has been a surprise to many (including myself) and if I had to describe them in a word it would be scrappy. They can’t hit for power (T-12th in NL with 41 HR) and they can’t steal bases (Last in NL with 21 SB) but they still find themselves as the 4th best run producing team in the NL (243). The Mets do it by making pitchers work (194 BB, 3rd in NL) and by playing good situational baseball, rarely missing an opportunity to move a runner up 90 feet. Advantage Mets
Bullpens – The Washington bullpen is one of the best in baseball and continues to get more reliable every week. After a bit of a rough start this season they have dropped their era as a group to 3.06 (3rd in NL) and seem to have found a suitable interim closer (until Drew Storen gets back) in Tyler Clippard (4 for 4 Saves). The Met’s bullpen is an abomination. There’s only one stat I need to back up that claim; the Met’s 5.45 bullpen era is OVER A RUN HIGHER than any other team in the major leagues (Blue Jays 29th at 4.44). Advantage Nationals
Game Summary – The Nationals jump on rookie starter Hefner early and Jackson turns in his fourth straight quality start as the Nats cruise to 10 games over .500.
Prediction: Nationals 7, Mets 2
Key Players (Stat Prediciton): Jackson (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 7 K, 1 BB), LaRoche (3-4, HR, 3 RBI), Hefner (4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 K, 2 BB), Wright (2-4, 2B, RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 31 – 22
Jesse’s Picks ATS: 25 – 27