Where: National’s Park
When: 1:35 EST
The Starters: Hanson (5-4, 3.84) vs. Gonzalez (7-1, 2.04)
The Line: Nats -135, Braves +115, O/U 6.5 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters – Gio Gonzalez has been an absolute beast in his 10 starts as a National and in my opinion has been the best pitcher in the NL. Here are his NL ranks: ERA (2.04, 2nd), K (79, T-2nd, will be first after today), Opp BA (.156, 1st), and WHIP (0.94, 2nd). He’s always had great stuff but he’s improved his command, issuing less walks and keeping the ball down in the zone allowing just 1 homerun in 61.2 innings. Gonzalez’s last start in Atlanta was a dominant one (7 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 10 K) and I expect more of the same today. Hanson has been a pretty good pitcher over the course of his young career and 2012 has been no different. He got hit hard in his last start against St. Louis, but other than that he has been pretty solid in every start this season. I think he’ll be solid tonight as well. Advantage Nationals
Lineups – The Nationals lineup had it’s best offensive series of the year a week ago against the Braves, scoring 22 runs in 3 games. They followed that up by scoring just 7 the next series in Miami, and that kind of inconsistency has been pretty typical of the Nats this season. Overall the Nats are pretty much a mediocre National League offense, but Mike Morse’s return to the lineup today should be a big help if he’s totally healthy. The Brave’s lineup has been among the best in the NL all year as many expected they would be. They had a bit of slump last week, scoring just 20 runs during an 8 game losing streak, but have scored 15 in the 2 games since (both wins) and Freddie Freeman seems to have found a solution to his eye issue (sports goggles). Advantage Braves
Bullpens – Both of these bullpens are starting to pitch up to their potential after a bit of a rough start to the season. The National’s 3.19 bullpen era ranks 4th in the NL and seems to be steadily dropping each week. They’ve gotten great contributions from unexpected sources in Sean Burnett and Craig Stammen, while also getting production from all-star Tyler Clippard, who seems to be the answer as the National’s interim closer until Drew Storen returns. The Braves pen continues to see their era drop as well, it’s now down to 3.69, which is good enough for 8th in the NL. Two of their big 3 of Kimbrel, Venters, and O’Flaherty (Venters and O’Flaherty) were off to uncharacteristically average starts in 2012, but have settled in recently. Kimbrel has been his normal dominant self all year, converting 15 of 16 saves with a 1.89 era. Both of these teams have to feel pretty confident if they can take a lead into the late innings. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary - Gio looks unhittable again as Mike Morse announces he’s back with a big home run to give the Nats their 5th straight curly W over the division rival Braves.
Prediction: Nationals 4, Braves 2
Key Players (Stat Prediciton): Gonzalez (7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 8 K, 2 BB), Morse (2-4, HR, 2 RBI), Hanson (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 2 BB), Uggla (1-3, HR)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 30 – 21
Jesse’s Picks ATS: 25 – 25