Where: Marlins Park
When: 7:10 EST
The Starters: Jackson (1-2, 3.38) vs. Sanchez (2-3, 2.87)
The Line: Marlins -145, Nats +125, O/U 7.5 Runs, Marlins -1.5
Starters – Tuesday night’s pitching match-up will feature two hard throwing right handers in Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. Jackson has pitched well overall this season for the Nationals despite his 1-2 record, his era is solid at 3.38 while his Opp BA (.221) and WHIP (1.01) are outstanding. The problem with Jackson has been his consistency, when he’s on he’s very good, when he’s off he’s very hittable. By going 7 innings and allowing just 3 earned runs in his last outing, Jackson finally put together back to back quality starts for the first time as a National. As erratic as he’s been I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing but I’m going to be optimistic and say it’s a step towards stability for EJ. Sanchez has been the ace of the Marlin’s staff so far this year with a great 2.87 era and 62 K in 59.2 IP. His last outing was his first non-quality start of the year (9 starts) and snapped a steak of 6 consecutive appearances going at least 7 innings (5.1 IP, 5 ER vs SF). I expect Sanchez to bounce back with a quality start and post a similar line to the one he put up against the Nats on April 21st in Washington (7 IP, 2 ER). Advantage Marlins
Lineups – Both of these lineups are hot right now but both are also experiecing some injury issues. The Nationals are in the midst of their best offensive stretch of the season despite being with Jayson Werth, Mike Morse, and Wilson Ramos. They scored at least 7 runs in each game of their recent three game sweep of the Braves. However, the Marlins are still better in almost every major offensive statistic and have speed and power all through their lineup. They will be without their spark plug center fielder Emilio Bonifacio (20 SB) but they still have speed in Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and power in Giancarlo Stanton. The Nats are looking better at the plate lately but the Marlins are still just a bit better. Advantage Marlins (Stats accurate as of start of series)
Bullpens – The Nationals bullpen was thought to be on of the best going into this year, and after a bit of a rough start, they’re starting to look like they are. They’ve dropped their era down to 3.17 (9th in MLB) and they seem to have found a closer who can consistantly get the job done in Tyler Clippard. Sean Burnett (0.66 era) and Craig Stammen (1.33 era) have also been outstanding in their time so far this season. The Marlins pen has had bright spots in Randy Choate (0.57 era) and Steve Cishek (1.27 era) but other than that they’ve been mediocre with a 3.93 era (20th in MLB). The Marlin’s new big money closer Heath Bell has been awful, with an 8.47 era and 4 blown saves already this year. Advantage Nationals (Stats accurate as of start of series)
Game Summary – Sanchez outduels Jackson and Morrison carries the offense as the Marlin’s bullpen barely holds on for the win.
Prediction: Marlins 5, Nationals 4
Key Players (Stat Prediciton): Jackson (6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 K, 3 BB), Harper (2-4, HR, 2 RBI), Sanchez (7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 9 K, 2 BB), Morrison (2-3, HR, 3 RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 28 – 20
Jesse’s Picks ATS: 25 – 22