Where: PNC Park

When: 7:05

The Starters: Strasburg (2-0, 1.66) vs. Correia (1-2, 3.38)

The Line: Nats -165, Bucs +145, O/U 6 Runs, Nats -1.5

Starters - The series finale between the Nationals and Pirates on Thursday night will be a battle between two very different right handers. The Nationals will release the Strasbeast for 7th time this season in hopes of avoiding a sweep at the hands of Pittsburgh. So far this year Strasburg is undefeated in his 6 starts (although just 2 wins), ranks 8th in the majors in era at 1.66, 9th in opponents average at .187 and 4th in WHIP with a microscopic 0.84. He has been dominant, to no ones surprise, but he is coming off his worst start so far in which he surrendered 3 ER in 6 innings against the Phillies. However, even in that start he was relatively dominant other than giving up a Hunter Pence 2-run HR, allowing just 2 other hits all game. The Pirates will send veteran Kevin Correia to the mound to try to complete the sweep and get them back within a game of .500 (currently 14-16). The 31 year old has been somewhat of a journey man over the course of his career, playing for three different teams (SF, SD, PIT) and alternating between starting and coming out of the bullpen. His career 49-56 record and 4.57 era are underwhelming and he’s probably declining (era of 4.79 in 11′). Correia isn’t going to strike out many batters (less than 1 every 2 innings since start of 11′) but he does a good job of missing the barrels of bats when hes on, which he has been so far this year for the most part (.218 Opp BA). He was very good in his first 4 starts, never allowing more than 2 ER in any of them, but his last start against the Reds was a bad one (7 IP, 5 ER, 9 H). If Correia can throw strikes tonight I think he will turn in a quality start against a weak Nat’s batting order, but Strasburg will be nearly unhittable. Advantage Nationals

Lineups - If your the type of fan that loves to see home runs and high scoring games, this isn’t the series for you because both of these lineups are anemic. The Nats rank 12th in the NL or worse in virtually every offensive statistic including; AVG (.238, 12th), R (96, 15th), HR (18, T-13th), SB (11, T-15th), SLG (.353, 14th), and OPS (.665, 13th). That’s pretty awful across the board but as I say every series, they do make opposing pitchers work by fouling off good pitches and taking bad ones, which has led to an acceptable OBP of .312 (8th in NL). As poor as the Nat’s production has been at the plate, it’s hard to argue that the Pirates’ production hasn’t been even worse. I could run down all the stats like I did for the Nats, which are just as pathetic for the Bucs (13th or worse in NL in the 6 categories I sited for the Nats) but the only stat you really need to know regarding the Pirates is that they rank dead last in the MLB in runs with 78, a whopping 17 less than any other team in baseball (Twins next lowest at 95). Three teams in the league have scored more than twice as many runs as Pittsburgh (Braves 163, Cardinals 161, Rangers 160) and one of them happens to be in their division. So to sum things up, the Washington lineup is no murderer’s row but they will get a boost with Ryan Zimmerman returning tonight and the Bucs are the worst lineup in the baseball. Advantage Nationals (Stats accurate as of start of series)

Bullpens - The bullpen is an area of strength for both of these teams. The National’s pen doesn’t quite have the lowest era in the league at 3.47 (11th in MLB), but they keep the ball in the ballpark allowing just 3 homers (Tied lowest in MLB) and usually find a way to get the curly W with 8 wins (Tied most in MLB with O’s!). Not to mention their stats have been somewhat tainted by recent call up Ryan Perry’s 23.62 era (7 ER in 2.2 IP), no other Nats pitcher has an era over 5.54 (Gorzelanny). The Pirates relievers have combined for a 2.76 era which is good for 6th in the majors. They also carry a 5-3 record, but beyond that none of their stats are overwhelmingly impressive, mostly near the middle of the league. They don’t have any real stars out there but they don’t have any real bums either, they’re solid all the way through. The numbers may not totally back me up right now, but I’d trust the Nationals late inning guys (Rodriguez, Burnett, Stammen) more than I’d trust their Pirates counterparts (Cruz, Hanrahan, Lincoln). Advantage Nationals (barely) (Stats accurate as of start of series)

Game Summary - Strasburg channels his major league debut by dominating the Pirate’s lineup once again and Zimmerman shows he’s back with a big fly as the Nats avoid the sweep.

Prediction: Nationals 4, Pirates 0

Key Players (Stat Prediction): Strasburg (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 10 K, 0 BB), Zimmerman (2-3, HR, 2 RBI), Correia (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 2 BB), Jones (1-3, 2B)

Jesse’s Picks W/L: 17 – 13

Jesse’s Picks ATS: 16 – 13