When: 7:05 EST
The Starters: Kendrick (0-2, 6.59) vs. Strasburg (2-0, 1.13)
The Line: Nats -205, Phils +175, O/U 6.5 Runs, Nats -1.5
Starters – NL pitcher of the month for April, Stephen Strasburg will go to the mound Friday night for his 6th start of the 2012 season. He has been nothing short of amazing in the first 5, going undefeated with a microscopic 1.13 era, good for 2nd best in all of baseball (Dempster 0.95). Tonight Strasbeast will take on a mediocre Phillie’s lineup that is still missing it’s two best hitters in Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. I fully expect another dominant outing from him and I’d be shocked if he gave up more than 2 runs. The Phils will attempt to counter with veteran right hander Kyle Kendrick. Looking at Kendrick’s career numbers, I think he’s a little bit underrated considering he’s basically a no name despite winning over 57% of his decisions (43-32) and having an average era (4.46). But with that said, he is no Strasburg. Kendrick had his best season as a pro last year, splitting time between starting and bullpen duty, he went 8-6 with a 3.22 era. In 2 starts this year, Kendrick was very bad (3 IP, 7 ER vs. Dbacks) in one and solid in the other (6 IP, 2 ER vs. Cubs), with both starts resulting in losses. The good news for Kendrick is the Nat’s lineup is still missing it’s two biggest bats (Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Morse, Zim should be back soon) and the guys that are in the lineup haven’t hit him particularly well in the past. I don’t expect a bad start from Kendrick tonight but he’s not even in Strasburg’s league (not many guys are). Advantage Nationals
Lineups - These two lineups are similar in that they are both missing their normal 3rd and 4th place hitters due to injury and they both don’t scare anyone right now. The Nationals are in the bottom 3 of the National league in batting average (.225, 15th in NL), homeruns (14, T-14th), runs (82, T-13th), OPS (.629, 16th) and on top of that they can’t manufacture runs with speed either, as they’re tied for 14th in steals with just 10 (caught 6 times). The only semi-positive stat to speak of right now regarding this offense is that they rank in tie for 6th in the NL with 88 walks. Things look a little brighter for the Phillies offense but calling them anything more than mediocre would still be a stretch. They are about the middle of the NL in batting average (.256, 8th), runs (97, 8th), and steals (19, T-5th) but they are dead last in walks (53). Walks don’t seem that significant but when you think of the fact that the Nationals and Phillies have the same on base percentage (.300) despite Philly batting 31 points higher, it bears some weight. Bryce Harper has been great so far since being called up, finally giving the Nat’s a hitter that opposing pitchers fear. However, his impact hasn’t really translated into team success yet, as Washington has only scored 11 runs in his 5 games with the club (2.2 Runs/game). Advantage Phillies
Bullpens – The Nationals bullpen has been very solid this year, with Sean Burnett, Craig Stammen, and Henry Rodriguez leading the way. They also haven’t really had any liabilities so far this year, with only one guy having an era over 5 (Gorzelanny 6.17) so Davey Johnson can give the ball to any of the 7 hurlers he has out there with confidence. On top of that Rodriguez has bounced back nicely since his blown save in LA and Tyler Clippard is looking closer to his 2011 form with every outing. The Philly bullpen hasn’t been very impressive this year with the exception of $50 million closer Jonathan Papelbon. Pap looks hell bent on proving his contract isn’t as ridiculous as we all think it is, converting all 9 of his save chances while allowing just 1 run in 11 innings. Joe Savery has looked promising so far, giving up just 1 earned run on 2 hits in 6.1 innnigs, but that’s a small sample size. Other than those two, Chad Qualls and Antonio Bastardo are the only other relievers with eras under 4.7, so they don’t have depth they can count on. Advantage Nationals
Game Summary – The Nat’s bats take advantage of drawing the Phillie’s weakest starter and Strasburg demonstrates his brilliance once again in route to a 3rd straight curly W.
Prediction: Nationals 5, Phillies 1
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Strasburg (7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 8 K, 1 BB), Ramos (2-3, HR, 2 RBI), Kendrick (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 2 BB), Victorino (2-4, 2B, SB)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 14 – 11
Jesse’s Picks ATS: 14 – 10
