Where: National’s Park
When: 7:05 EST
The Starters: Kennedy (3-0, 3.38) vs. Detwiler (2-1, 1.64)
The Line: Dbacks -115, Nats -105, O/U 6.5 Runs, Dbacks -1.5
Starters – Thursday night’s pitching match up will be a lefty vs. righty battle between two guys who are off to good starts in 2012. The Nationals will send 26 year old lefty Ross Detwiler to the bump for his 5th start of the season. Detwiler has really impressed in his first four starts, giving up just 4 earned runs total with a 1.64 era and a .203 opponent average. Much of that success is due to his solid command, allowing just 6 walks in his 22 innings, leading to an efficient 1.00 WHIP and a K/BB ratio over 3. The only real knock to made against Ross so far this season is that he has taxed the bullpen a bit more than the rest of the Nat’s starters, going just 5 innings in 2 of his starts and 6 in the other 2. If Detwiler can hold Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, and Aaron Hill (All 3 have crushed lefties this year) in check, he’ll have another solid start tonight. Right handed pitcher Ian Kennedy will be taking the ball for Kirk Gibson and the Diamondbacks tonight. Kennedy is coming off an outstanding season in 2011 in which he won 21 games (21-4) and had an era under 3 (2.88) landing him 4th place in NL Cy Young voting. The challenge for Kennedy now becomes proving that 2011 wasen’t a fluke. Despite his 3-0 record and solid era at 3.38 so far this year, he has been hittable, allowing 38 hits in 32 innings for a .299 opponent batting average. I expect Kennedy to turn in his 5th quality start in 6 attempts this year, but I think the Nats will be able to push across a few runs against him. Advantage Nationals (by the slimmest of margins)
Lineups - The National’s lineup has been a total liability so far this season without Mike Morse and Ryan Zimmerman. They are currently 2nd to last in the National League in both batting average (.226) and steals (8), and third to last in both Runs (74) and homers (13). The Dbacks lineup on the other hand has been pretty good, placing 9th in the NL in average (.246), 4th in Runs (104), 2nd in homers (24), and 1st in steals (21). And all of that is with Justin Upton off to a slow start (.242, 2 HR, 5 RBI) and Chris Young on the DL. Even though I do like the potential that Bryce Harper and Tyler Moore bring to the lineup, it would be crazy for me to say that the Nationals have the better lineup of the two teams right now. Advantage Diamondbacks. (stats as of start of the series)
Bullpens - The National bullpen has been very solid this year, with Sean Burnett, Craig Stammen, and Henry Rodriguez leading the way. They also haven’t really had any liabilities so far this year, with only one guy having an era over 5.40 (Gorzelanny 6.17) so Davey Johnson can give the ball to any of the 8 hurlers he has out there with confidence. Also you have to figure that Tyler Clippard will find his fastball control again soon and return to being the dominant set up man he was last season (3-0, 1.83 era). The Diamondbacks have a pretty nice trio of their own with Bryan Shaw, Brad Ziegler, and Craig Breslow, all three having eras under 2.50. But unlike the Nats they’ve had some liabilities to work around with Mike Zagurski and Joe Paterson combining to give up 15 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. Both bullpens have some decent arms but the Nationals have the advantage in terms of depth. Advantage Nationals. (stats as of start of the series)
Game Summary - The Nationals ride the momentum of Wednesday night’s emotional walk-off win to take the rubber match behind another solid start from Ross Detwiler.
Prediction: Nationals 4, Diamondbacks 3
Key Players (Stat Prediction): Detwiler (6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 4 K, 2 BB), Desmond (3-4, 2B, RBI), Kennedy (7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 5 K, 2 BB), Hill (2-4, HR, 2 RBI)
Jesse’s Picks W/L: 13 – 11
Jesse’s Picks ATS: 13 – 10